2026-Q1 · Updated 4/1/2026
Trilateral Geoeconomic
Fragmentation Index
Are China, the US, and the EU cooperating or fragmenting economically?
A composite index across 6 geoeconomic dimensions. 223 articles classified this quarter, blended with structured data from OECD, IMF, BIS, SWIFT, WIPO, GDELT, and UN sources.
Headline TGFI
Trilateral Geoeconomic Fragmentation Index
Weighted average of 6 dimensions (Trade, Investment, Technology, Finance, Leverage, Policy) across 3 bilateral pairs (CN-US, CN-EU, US-EU). Each dimension blends LLM-classified text scores with structured hard data. Scale: -100 (conflict) to +100 (cooperation).
Framework: OECD Handbook on Composite Indicators (2008)
-8.4
Neutral
-1.8 vs 2025-Q4
-100 Conflict0+100 Cooperation
2026-Q1LIVE
Dimensional Breakdown
6 geoeconomic dimensions · Click to expand methodology and sources
CooperationNeutralConflict
Dimension
CN-USCN-EUUS-EU
Avg
Trade
-42.0
18 art.
-12.0
14 art.
+25.0
10 art.
-9.7
Investment
-55.0
12 art.
-28.0
9 art.
+35.0
7 art.
-16.0
Technology
-68.0
24 art.
-35.0
16 art.
+45.0
12 art.
-19.3
Finance
-22.0
8 art.
+8.0
5 art.
+55.0
6 art.
+13.7
Leverage
Economic Weapons Tracked
- Critical Minerals — Rare earths, gallium, germanium, cobalt
- Energy — LNG leverage, pipeline politics, OPEC+
- Food & Agriculture — Grain export bans, fertilizer controls
- Supply Chains — Pharma APIs, shipping lanes, key components
- Strategic Reserves — Mineral stockpiling, oil reserve releases
- Economic Coercion — Tourism bans, market access denial, boycotts
Farrell & Newman (2019) Weaponized Interdependence
-45.0
15 art.
-20.0
11 art.
+18.0
8 art.
-15.7
Policy
-35.0
20 art.
-15.0
13 art.
+40.0
15 art.
-3.3
Methodology
30 peer-reviewed papers across 6 dimensions. OECD Handbook on Composite Indicators framework. No arbitrary weights.